Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season/Felix
06L.Felix AoI: Wave coming of Africa Again. This one actually looks a bit like Pre-Dean. It has a 1003 low associated with it, so it already has one foot out the door. Then again, it could just go poof like the last one. Shear is 20-30 knots off the coast, so it'll probably have to wait until the Central Atlantic to really develop. Cainer91 01:50, 26 August 2007 (UTC) :It'll be slow to form. Cyclone1(16:55 UTC -26/08/2007) ::I don't see squat out there, just a few showers. If it's developing, it'll be in the Pacific. -- SkyFury 00:45, 27 August 2007 (UTC) :Well, according to the 10:30 TWO, some slow development is possible. It lost it's low pressure center since it came off Africa, though, so it'll have to work to develop. Here's a picture of it right now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg. Cainer91 18:11, 27 August 2007 (UTC) 94L.INVEST FRESH FROM THE NAVY SITE... http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi, I'm giving it a 30% chance in developing into Felix RoswellAtup 10:05 28 August 2007 (UTC) :Eh, I think this one will go the way of 99L. There's just too much dry air for it to develop. If it can start building convection it may have a chance, but right now it's not looking so good. Cainer91 17:49, 28 August 2007 (UTC) ::Doesn't look great on GOES. The models seem mixed on this, but only two really make something out of it (CMC and HWRF). I would say this is not Felix (or TD 6). IP 19:32, 28 August 2007 (UTC) :::NHC says conditons appear favorable for "some development" over the next few days. -- SkyFury 20:37, 28 August 2007 (UTC) ::::It needs to gain convection before I starting betting ten bucks on a Felix. I've learned my lesson. That Caribbean blob looks better than 94L. (Cyclone1 logged out) 02:37, 29 August 2007 (UTC) Looks like random convection to me :|. IP 23:09, 29 August 2007 (UTC) :Recent update says it could make depression by Saturday. I don't get it, but the NHC really, REALLY likes this little guy. IP 17:04, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::W-underground says a SHIPS run ended in a 98 knot storm at 120 hours. IP 17:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::Recon flying tomorrow. Cyclone1(21:34 UTC -30/08/2007) Looks like there's nothing between this and TD6, but we shouldn't speak so soon, should we? IP 21:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Look at it now! Once the convection moves over the center, it will be time. IP 23:20, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::This thing also looks good. There are certainly a lot of stirrings out in the Atlantic. It's been a while since I've seen the TWO this long. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:27, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::Grr... You stole MY point! ''I was going to say that. Hmph. :::Seriously though, three depression-like storms, two quite possibly become depressions soon? I think we can welcome in September, folks. IP 23:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::::(LOL!)...Tis the season. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:04, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::::... To be wary. ; ) IP 00:15, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::::::...Fa la la la la.... la la la laa. We could be song writers, guys. 'Cyclone1(00:50 UTC -31/08/2007) *brief chuckle* That was unnecessarily spontaneous. Bravo! IP 01:07, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Wow, this thing looks a lot better than it did when I looked at it about 6 hours ago! Bob rulz 02:57, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::A depression could form later this morning. Say hello to Felix. Haven't seen anything this good since... well, Dean! (two in a row, eh?) IP 11:03, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Special Disturbance statement from NHC. Recon flies in this afternoon to confirm a depression. I predict Felix, max cat 3, min cat 1. IP 13:22, 31 August 2007 (UTC) 06L.NONAME NRL's calling it 06L. Looks like the recon found a depression! --Patteroast (not logged in)/209.162.45.180 20:24, 31 August 2007 (UTC) You beat me to posting this! Gah! *Cyclone locks himself in his room to think about Patteroast and cry.* ''Cyclone1(20:33 UTC -31/08/2007) :Anyway, looking excellent, Felix by tonight, I'd say. 'Cyclone1(20:33 UTC -31/08/2007) ::It's almost five o'clock and I haven't heard a peep from NHC. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:45, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::They're speaking now. 'Cyclone1(20:50 UTC -31/08/2007) ::::yep and it looks like this is goign into the region where dean hit Jason Rees 20:56, 31 August 2007 (UTC) Tropical Depression Six Official. ''Cyclone1(20:50 UTC -31/08/2007) :Meh, even it does hit where Dean did, (which it looks to be going south of Dean) it'll be barely noticed compared to Dean. NHC is only calling for a category one. 'Cyclone1(21:02 UTC -31/08/2007) ::GODDANGIT! You beat me to it! I say stronger than Cat 1, don't see why not if it takes a dissimilar path than Dean. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:05, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::My personal prediction is that it'll reach hurricane status, but be just over Cat 2 status. - Enzo Aquarius 21:06, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::::The people over there are probably going "Please God, no!" Indeed, we could have another hurricane hitting the Yucatan area. Given what the NHC is giving us now, I'd say Enzo's assessment is a good one. Interaction with Hondurus could weaken it though. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:35, 31 August 2007 (UTC) You can always trust Eric to finish a sentence with "Please God, no!" and start the next one with 'indeed'. Seriously, though, that's probably spot on. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:52, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Do not question my superior diction! *muffled chuckle* Seriously, I'm a fiction writer, what else can I say? That weakening by Honduras could be a painful one. Remember, Fifi made landfall in Belize but killed 8,000 people in Hondurus. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:00, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::It probably won't be ''that bad. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:11, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Well, it all depends on landfall and angle. If it Ediths-out, then even a strong hurricane clipping the northeast coast wouldn't be a huge deal. But if it pulls a Fifi, or worse, a Mitch, by moving northeast of Honduras and then curving back west-south-westward. That's when the flooding starts. Just climatology speaking. Cyclone1(00:49 UTC -1/09/2007) Newest NRL image still has it tagged as Six, but the hover shows that winds are now 35kt. Isn't that enough for them to call it "Felix" now, or are they hoping to not repeat the 16E/Pilar debacle? Jake52 My island 08:46, 1 September 2007 (UTC) Tropical Storm Felix Nevermind, the 5 am update on NHC gives the depression the name and ups it to Tropical Storm strength. Predicted to become a hurricane, like another Felix before it (read: every one of them). Jake52 My island 09:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :Yup, he's looking pretty good too. I really should've gotten up at five.... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 13:59, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::HWRF gives it a scary potential track... INTO THE GULF (gasps)... PAST JAMAICA (bigger gasps) RIGHT OVER KINGSTON (mass fainting) HIT RANGE COULD BE FROM HOUSTON TO NEW ORLEANS (audience death toll exceeds 700). Scary thought, but not likely (at this point). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 14:17, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :Hard to say, that 4th/5th day track change to the northwest by NOAA could mean a northern-central impact in Mexico if it continues on past Belize. It's only the beginning of Felix though, anything could change. - Enzo Aquarius 14:46, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Felix is now predicted to become a Major Cat. 3 Hurricane in five days... RoswellAtup 14:57, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Expected to become a hurricane period in less than a day. :S - Enzo Aquarius 14:58, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::::The first Seppy storm isn't a dud, so I'd probably say this season is a lot less dud-esque than I thought : ). It's already better (worse?) than 2006. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 15:24, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Well, if we go by last year's season, up to Florence there was only two hurricanes (Ernesto and Florence). Compared to this year, if Felix becomes a hurricane, it will be semi-par with last year (Except that Ernesto only made Cat 1 while Dean this year made it up to Cat 5). So far, 2007 has been more 'intense', per se, than 2006. - Enzo Aquarius 15:38, 1 September 2007 (UTC) And based on the average season, we still are above normal, and if we last through October (unlike 2006) and November (again, unlike 2006) we'll have much more. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 16:07, 1 September 2007 (UTC) Now at 999 hPa, and 70 mph winds. Looks like it'll be upgraded at five or eight. Say hello to the second hurricane of the season! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 17:48, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :Damn, Felix is taking off. We're having us a friggin' tropical siesta down there. That pressure is high for a storm that's almost a hurricane. In the Caribbean, those pressures usually get down pretty low (Dean, Wilma, Gilbert, Mitch, Ivan, y'all know those guys). Can't say this is good news for anyone in the Caribbean. Dean's little brother is getting awfully angry down there. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:59, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::The pressure might be higher because it only recently developed, but that doesn't explain the windspeeds. I wonder what the forecast advisory will say. At this rate, it's a shoe-in for second major hurricane of the year. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC) An old adage of mine could be holding up: BEWARE THE FIRST STORM OF SEPTEMBER -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:32, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :Christ, man, you don't need to point it out! What if the people in the Honduras are watching us? (Imagine that scene). GFDL strong Cat 2, Ships strong Cat 3, and potential Gulf storm, as well as (hopefully not) a possible Fifi repeat. Beware indeed. BTW, it almost looks like a banding eye is trying to form. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:19, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::10 bucks this makes hurricane JUST before Henriette, and becomes more intense. Both are showing signs of development and a potential banding eye. Felix has higher winds, Henrietta has lower pressure. It's a race all right. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:39, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Mexico's getting attacked from both sides here. Felix doesn't look like it plans to play nice. It's fast turning ugly. Henriette's not going away and Felix could hit Belize as a four before it's all said and done. Felix as an eyelash away from a hurricane and could be upgraded at any time. The pressure's aren't dropping but the storm just keeps looking better and better on the satellite. With 98L out in the Atlantic, Dean earlier this year and now Felix, this season could be a Caribbean war. The United States has yet to see a storm stronger than 35 knots. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:06, 1 September 2007 (UTC) Jezum Craw! The first access I get to a computer and I see a possible hurricane?! Man, this year is kicking up... 'Cyclone1(22:26 UTC -1/09/2007) :THIS JUST IN! Recon just released a Vortex Data Message saying they have confirmed 77kt winds in the NE quadrant. Folks, we have a hurricane. ''Cyclone1(23:39 UTC -1/09/2007) Hurricane Felix Official as of 8pm. 'Cyclone1(23:51 UTC -1/09/2007) :Yup, batten down the hatches folks, here we go again. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:55, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :What's worse is that the Discussion for 5 pm (before Flying Felix was upped to Hurricane strength) mentioned a high possibility for this one to rapidly intensify. After what Dean did, that's not exactly the best thing you want to hear. Jake52 My island 00:20, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Under any circumstances that's not what you want to hear, unless it's out at sea. All four Felixs that have ever formed have now become hurricanes and only one of the other three wasn't a major hurricane. And he continues to look better organized every time I look at the floater imagery. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:08, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::If Felix does make Cat. 5 by landfall, this would make two Cat. 5/landfalls in a row. Going to be an interesting season if this happens. - Enzo Aquarius 01:30, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Somewhat doubt it, but in the tropics almost anything is possible, 2005 taught me that. I think it's going to be an interesting season regardless. 98L is looking awfully greedy out there. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:34, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Uh oh! Rapid intensification underwent. Felix is now officially a higher-end category 2 and is predicted to hit Category 4 strength. This looks like it will get VERY ugly and PLEASE let's not get a re-Dean. It hasn't even been a month! Jake52 My island 09:06, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Underwent? It's still undergoing... We will probably have a category three by 11am. 'Cyclone1(12:23 UTC -2/09/2007) :::Nope, no category three yet, but 105, 980. Extremely high pressures... ''Cyclone1(14:43 UTC -2/09/2007) ::::Raw DVORAK number right now is 6.6. This equates to... 150 mph. However, pressure is abnormally high, so the winds are probably lower than that. It's definitely a Category Three, though. |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 17:27, 2 September 2007 (UTC) It is also extremely small. Joan back in 88 was an abnormally small cyclone also, it had a well defined eye as a tropical storm. '''Cyclone1(17:33 UTC -2/09/2007) :Umm, Felix. Feeelix. Behave yourself, Felix. Naughty storms go to Hell. 90 knots and counting and it looks a hair better than that (95-100 I'd say). It's really close to South America. A 125-knot Category 4 approaching Honduras is not a situation I want to contemplate right now. The predicted track and intensity, as well as the size of the storm, reminds me a little bit of Iris in 2001 (which used the same name list) and also of Greta in 1978, neither of which were a lot of fun. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:51, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Major Hurricane Felix 125 mph. Pressure at 964. If anyone's keeping score, pressure fell 16mbar in 3 hours. 'Cyclone1(18:08 UTC -2/09/2007) :And winds rose 20kt. 130.64.137.61 18:09, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Recon flight found flight level winds of 132 knots, which equates to 140 mph. So, unless the NHC is in denial, Felix will be a Category 4 at 5:00. Felix's eye also has a stadium effect going on. |C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 19:25, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::Recon also found a minimum pressure of 957. Felix is bombing. ''Cyclone1(19:30 UTC -2/09/2007) 140 MPH, 956 MB, Category 4 as of the 5PM update. It's gone from Category 1 to Category 4 in 15 hours ; from 2 to 4 in 6 hours. Impressive. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:51, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :(confliction) - Jesus Christ! 105-140 mph in less than 12 hours is obscene. A Category 5 passing right by Honduras is not a pleasant thought. Lest we forget, the last time that happened was a little guy named Mitch. This season is turning crazy. -- [[User:SkyFury|'''''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 21:05, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Felix is predicted to move over a warm eddy in the Caribbean...Anita did something similar itself in the Gulf of Mexico...look what happened. Felix is really starting to freak me out. Jake52 My island 21:27, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Felix looks amazing on visible satellite, maybe even better than Dean. It's eye was 30 nm last night, but now it's only 12 nm, with a spectacular stadium effect. The last time there was a stadium eye in the Atlantic was Wilma. Not a good sign. The only thing that will hold it back from more rapid strengthening is an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, which will probably occur in the next 24 hours. But, then it has even warmer waters and perfect shear to deal with, so it could become even more powerful. Not a good situation, in any case. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 21:45, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Do you guys realize that if Felix is upgraded to a category five by 11pm, it will have gone from TS to category five in 24 hours? That's only been accomplished twice in world history. Forrest, and Wilma. ''Cyclone1(21:59 UTC -2/09/2007) ::I don't think that's going to happen but I do think that there is a good chance this thing could become a five, the second in less than a month. Felix is more compact than Dean right now, so the damage could be localized. But the news is not good. This could be Central America's year. -- [[User:SkyFury|'''''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 22:07, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::Jesus, this storm looks fantastic on visible! This storm, imo, is a better-looking storm than Dean ever was. I'm almost scared of what I'll find when I get back from work in about 6 hours. Bob rulz 22:58, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::(edit conflict!)I predict peak strength cat 5, cat 4 landfall on '''Belize City', this is not going to be a pretty sight. Reminds you of any other Belize hurricanes, perhaps even Fifi? Hope not! (If you haven't checked, I'm AstroHurricane001 on english wp) 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:02, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Felix looks spectacular. Much better than Dean ever did, and it is most definitely the most symmetrical storm in the Atlantic since at least Rita. I can't see how this won't be a Category 5. Oh, and recon reported a central pressure of 935 mbar, which is a insane drop of 21 mbars in just about 3 hours. Amazing. |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 23:31, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Category 5 Hurricane Felix Vortex message just came in. Recon found surface winds of 163 knots in the NE quadrant. Felix is now an 185 mph storm, and is still forcast to strengthen. All I can say is... Wow. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 23:58, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Mission was aborted because of the strength... this storm has intensified fastest to category 5, faster than Wilma and Forrest. It took 16 advisories for Wilma to hit Cat 5. :My God! That's incredible! NHC says 145 knots, which is official. And they forecast it to continue strengthening. I have nothing to say to that. All that comes out is noises like "Wow." The Caribbean this year has been like the Gulf of Mexico in 2005: An absolute cauldron. Remember, at this point that season, we'd had the same number of Category 5's we've had so far this year (although Emily was still believed to have been a four). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:31, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Looks like this one is in it for the long haul. It's projected to keep strengthening, and maintain Category 5 status longer than Allen did. Currently, it has the highest pressure of any reliably-recorded Category 5, though, which is odd. (I always thought Carla was a bit of an anomaly at 931 mbar.) 130.64.137.61 00:24, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :A testament to the strength of Felix: "A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT." So, they dropped it SW of the eye, and when it hit the water, it had flown half way across the cyclone. Crazy. |C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 00:39, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::HaHaHaHa! That insane. That's a bad day right there. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:12, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Wow i have only just got on at 2am our time and i am amazed to See a Cat Five Hurricane - I Wonder how long it will be before the NHC Refer to the Cat food (lol) Jason Rees 01:18, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Good frelling God, two C-5s in under two weeks. 2005 never even came close to giving us that. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 02:42, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :Nope. 11 pm advisory has been a hair slow coming (not surprised). The forecast advisory said the winds are still 165 but the pressure has fallen a bit to 930mb. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:02, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Wonder how far that pressure will fall. Given that the damnable thing is about to hit the high-heat content areas, I'm not too optimistic (for humanity. For us hurricane fanatics...I don't think Felix is quite done wowing us). --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 03:12, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :First thing I thought when I saw the 11pm advisory was "Did someone feed Felix some Wheaties?" The last time I checked it (advisory 8) it was at 105mph. That's what I get from staying away from the internet this weekend. I'll hate to see what it's like when I wake up. Wxdiva 03:46, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Anyone else hoping the Felix will follow the southerly tracks and end up in the Gulf of Tehuantepec? '''Other IP 04:49, 3 September 2007 (UT :I told you I was afraid what it would be like when I got back from work. This is one of the most rapidly-intensifying storms ever, and it hasn't even hit the highest heat content yet! This is insane. And it's hard to really hope it goes anywhere specific; it's going to be destructive no matter what. Bob rulz 04:52, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Dean was a disaster and not a catastrophe. Unfortunately, that's probably the kind of distinction we're looking for again. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:21, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Can't help but note that IR pictures of Felix are starting to show an annular shape. Please may I be just overexaggerating it. Jake52 My island 07:12, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :The name Felix has been used 4 times already and all became hurricanes and 3 became major hurricanes... 1995 has a Cat. 4 Felix, 2001 has a Cat. 3 Felix, 2007 has a Cat. 5 Felix... RoswellAtup 08:15, 3 September 2007 ::What do you expect with a name that literally means "successful or lucky"? Love to find out why the name, having this been said, was even put on the list.Jake52 My island 07:51, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Probably it and Oscar were put on the lists by someone who liked the ''The Odd Couple. Other IP 19:06, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Felix appears to be undergoing an eye-wall replacement cycle now with a tighter eye area. Perhaps more strength to come? - Enzo Aquarius 15:47, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :It'll weaken initially, but the windfeild will get larger (if the is infact an EWRC). If Felix hits Nicaragua as a category five, not only will it be catastrophic. It will be the only season in world wide histroy in which the two first hurricanes of the season were landfalling category five force storms. Cyclone1(16:17 UTC -3/09/2007) ::It would be the only season with two landfalling Fives, period. In each of the three previous multiple Cat-5 seasons (60, 61, 05), none of the Fives actually made landfall as such (Donna at 4, Ethel at 1 in 1960, Carla at 4, Hattie at 4 in 1961, Emily at 4, Katrina at 3, Rita at 3, and Wilma at 4). --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 17:05, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::That's what it's forecast to do. Doesn't mean it's going to happen, but it's the forecast. Felix doesn't look as mean now as it did yesterday. I assume it still hasn't passed over that warm eddy. The forecast still calls for some strengthening. The pressure is really high. Guillaume, you're right. 1961 was the closest when Carla and Hattie weakened just before landfall. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:11, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Very strange to have such a strong and well-formed storm with high pressure. Of course the eye formation and wind speed correlate very strongly, pressure is only the driving engine. We've seen in the past that small storms can have stronger winds with higher pressure, presumably because not as much power is needed to drive strong winds at a smaller size. But Felix goes even beyond what Andrew showed in this area, and any older storms with strong winds/high pressure cannot be considered as reliable data. Hypothetically, freezing of water in the air will provide additional energy for the storm, comparable (per volume of water involved) to the amount provided by condensation. If this occurred in significant amounts and the ice pellets didn't thaw until they hit the water, this would be an additional engine for the storm. The presence of groupel (ice) in the storm at high and low altitutes suggests this. But is there any precedent? How many hurricanes have ice in them? Seems very strange. Jdorje 17:38, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :I left for two days. I thought I'd see cat 3 Felix. This is insane. This is just frickin' wrong. This could be worse than Fifi. Have there ever been 2 cat fives in a row? God... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 17:49, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Indeed, absent for a day and look what I miss. :P To my recollection, I can't recall 2 Cat 5s in a row, and, as mentioned above, there has never been 2 Cat 5. landfalls in a row. - Enzo Aquarius 17:59, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Before edit conflict: - Eric? Beware the first storm of September indeed. I've looked at this and a picture and it's already starting to scare me. Goddang, I am ALWAYS away when everything fun happens! (Dean AND Felix!) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:00, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Same thing, buddy : ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:00, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Now down to 145 winds, but is forecast to re-strengthen. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:08, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Fluctuations - Downgraded Cat 4 Felix Just put this up because there's an excuse to. You can read the above post to see what's happening. This thing is so intense that the models literally forecast it to rapidly de-intensify so that it can comply with the laws of physics (naughty Felix, naughty naughty law-breaking Felix!). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:14, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :I think Felix is reorganizing a bit. Look at it this way: a Category 5 is like a heavy metal singer; he screams really loud but eventually he's going to have to take a break and get some water. That's what I think Felix is doing right now. He's become noticably less organized. The decrease in organization is consistant with an ERC (Emily dropped to a Cat 2 because of an ERC early in her life). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:34, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Tis a Category 4 now, according to CNN.com - Enzo Aquarius 18:35, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::According to EVERYBODY, actually. Eric, well... Yeah, actually. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:40, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Heavy metal singer? ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:41, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Eye is regaining definition, if that means anything, plus it's contracting. It could be just a fluctuation, possibly one caused by flat-lining straight from rapid intensification. It doesn't look like an ERC at this point, but they can come out of nowhere, and central convection is being pushed away from the eye. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:44, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :Does anyone mind if I archive most of this stuff, because it's really ticking me off that it takes .5-3 minutes to load the page. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:40, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::(grr, IP you talk too much!) :Umm, yeah that kinda looks like a pinhole eye, doesn't it. This could be bad (my favorite understatement. It came from a movie but that's a long story). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:45, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Archived it, the warning feature is gone. And I'd say that "bad" for a cat 5 monster ramming into Honduras is the biggest understatement anyone here's made for at least a week. Sorry about the talking thing, who else is going to say all of that? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:49, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::The eye looks almost as small as Wilma's... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:23, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Looks like a cat five now (eye is no longer around 6 or 7 nm small though, but I'm not entirely sure). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:54, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ...But it's not. Down to 135 mph now, 953 milibars. I predict landfall as a strong cat three, but restrengthening is possible prior to then. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:58, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :That's a pleasant surprise. It appears Central America just got lucky. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:11, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Unfortunately, it doesn't make much difference how strong it is, it's going to hit as a strong major hurricane in Northern Nicaragua/Honduras, and it's going to raise itself some real hell. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:14, 3 September 2007 (UTC) It appears that they have Downgraded Felix to 115k Winds, but from looking at the most recent Sat. Img... it looks like Felix has intensified majorly. Pinhole eye, deep convection, and a well formed eyewall. :Whew.. down to 135. Let's hope this weakening continues. 'Cyclone1(21:46 UTC -3/09/2007) ::71.7.217.94 (the guy above cyclone1's post) may be right. I'd say so, however, because the central part of the storm has expanded, which is what happened when Dean exploded. I still can't believe this. This is unreal to me. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 22:33, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::An hour or so ago, I would have agreed with you but now I'm siding with NHC. Felix looks significantly less organized. Plenty of weaker storms have small eyes. I just looked at one in my archives (Nora, 2003). As I thought, Felix went into a prolonged ERC and doesn't appear to be coming out of it very well. It is fast running out of water. Small-eyed storms are not very stable and prone to dramatic changes in intensity. We have just seen that here. Lest we forget, Fifi wasn't even a major hurricane when it killed 8,000 people. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:09, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Mmm. Not so much sure about the reasons why, but it does look weakened. If it had more ocean, I would guess it would stabilize at around 125 mph, then reintensify, but I would guess that's probably what it'll hit Central America at. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:24, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Stays at 135 mph. Might actually intensify, but not much past 140 mph. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:53, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :Looks really good now after dark. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:55, 4 September 2007 (UTC) ::Latest advisories are in with Felix still a Category 4. Restrengthening is possible before landfall (which is predicted to occur in less than 12 hours) NHC's track has been changed again, leaving Felix entirely on land after the upcoming landfall. - Enzo Aquarius 02:54, 4 September 2007 (UTC) Heading to the Gulf of Tehuantepec keeps looking likelier and likelier with now multiple models predicting that, but not a majority. However, with it having to go over 700 to 1000 km of land en route, the question is, if he does go that way, will it have degraded so much that it'll lose it's name? 'Other IP' 06:20, 4 September 2007 (UTC) Advisory out. Felix is upped to 150 mph and has a shot at Category 5 before landfall. This looks too horrible for words now and I pray for the safety of anything near this hurricane. Jake52 My island 06:52, 4 September 2007 (UTC) EDIT: Supposing Felix makes landfall as a Cat 5, what records would that break? :Most landfalls at category 5 in a single season. Up to 155 MPH now.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 09:41, 4 September 2007 (UTC) ::This is a monster again... Honduras will fall. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 10:27, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :::Landfall in Nicaragua. Felix keeps wanting to head further south than predicted. At this rate, it'll miss the Gulf of Tehuantepec by passing to the south of it! 'Other IP' 12:27, 4 September 2007 (UTC) Landfall - Category 5 Felix This just in: Landfall as a Cat 5, 160 MPH Beast ::::Wow i think this is going Epac now as a Tropical Depression or higher if it turns to the south a bit more Jason Rees 13:41, 4 September 2007 (UTC) Nicaragua got the full brunt of the landfall, while Felix is predicted to go through Honduras as a Tropical Storm and Depression. If it continues on course (west) and doesn't go fully towards Guatemala and Mexico, it could enter the Pacific as a Tropical Depression. The GFDL is predicting this as well. - Enzo Aquarius 15:09, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :What's the environment like in that area off the west coast of Guatemala? Could it redevelop? 130.64.137.61 16:25, 4 September 2007 (UTC) ::Second Category 5 landfall in just 2 weeks! That's incredible. I really feel for those people in Central America. This could be really bad. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:30, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :::Second Category 5 landfall in a single year is incredible in and of itself! --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 17:19, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :::Is it just me, or is this storm errily similar to Mitch? Both hurricanes: *Were cat 5s at their strongest *Made landfall in the Honduras-Nicaragua area *Occured during a La Nina *travelled over the Mountains of Honduras-Nicaragua and weakend there *Were originally expected to hit Belize *Kept veering south of their predicted track *Preceeded by at least one other major hurricane *Tracked west across the caribbean and strengthened rapidly *Hit land with barely a few days' warning So, could these all be a coincidence, or is Felix going to be a near-repeat of Mitch? 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:20, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :Similar conditions could lead to similar hurricanes. Of course, it could purely be coincidence. ;) - Enzo Aquarius 19:48, 4 September 2007 (UTC) Felix has made history today. 2007 is now a record setting year. No other Atlantic hurricane season has had two landfalling category fives. This is also the first occurence where the first TWO hurricanes were category fives. User:Cyclone1 (logged out) 20:12, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :I have three pictures of him: one as 94L just prior to development, one of his first developing banding eye, and one of him as a (probably) cat 5 monster a few hours off Nicaragua. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:51, 4 September 2007 (UTC) Category 1 now, should be weakening to a Tropical Storm by the next advisory at this rate. - Enzo Aquarius 21:27, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :Yes, there's many similarities to Mitch, but you're forgetting one key difference; it's moving a ''lot faster. Bob rulz 23:26, 4 September 2007 (UTC) ::It's still going to cause a tremendous amount of damage. It's not going to be a Mitch though. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:32, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :::According to CNN, there's a "Felix Flooding Treat". :P Aside from that, flooding is gonna be major in the next few days. Additionally, Felix has made a turn to the south slightly. - Enzo Aquarius 00:07, 5 September 2007 (UTC) Given this in the 0300UTC Forecast Discussion: "THE SITUATION BEING COMPLICATED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM POSSIBLY MOVING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION." I'm thinking that maybe the upper-level will diverge enough to form 96E.INVEST by the end of today while 06L.FELIX continues to follow the low-level (or would they do the opposite if they started tracking the two portions separately? Other IP 05:28, 5 September 2007 (UTC) :I heard that 151 people were missing though. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:38, 5 September 2007 (UTC) ::So ends the wrath of Felix. The NHC has not kept up with reports, thus, it is a sign that Felix is gone (can YOU see anything?). I'll keep this up for a while before archiving it in case anything else comes up. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP''']] 19:23, 5 September 2007 (UTC)